Sunday, June 26, 2016

Estimation is good (and I mean it!)

I am a huge fan of Pavel Brodzinsky's estimation poker cards and the whole “#NoEstimates” movement. But then again I think at last the amount of estimation Pawel suggest is necessary. And as even the long time proponent J.B. Rainsberger said farewell to #NoEstimates I find it helpful to distinguish between “harmful estimation” (my esteemed friend and colleague Tom Breur recently wrote about these) and helpful estimation.

Harmful estimation

Estimation can become harmful for a lot of the reasons pointed out by the followers of the #NoEstimates movements or – for example – by the reasons Tom states in his article I mentioned above.

In my opinion estimation becomes especially harmful when

  • it is used to put pressure on people
  • an effort is made to get “exact estimates”
  • estimates are treated as “exactimates

Helpful estimation

But – and it is a very strong "but" – just because it can be misused (and often is), it doesn't mean that there is no good in estimation.

A little while ago I wrote about planning already – how planning is what made it possible to evolve from hunter-gatherers to modern men.

And for me the same holds true for estimation. If there is no estimation, then there is no way to know whether it makes sense to even invest the effort to work on something. Planning and estimation go hand in hand. Even in "predictable" environments things sometimes only go partially according to plan. We have estimation all the time:

  • estimated time of arrival
  • estimated miles on this tank
  • estimated payout
  • etc.

We couldn't possibly handle our world in all its complexity without “estimating.“ Estimating if the car will fit into the parking spot. Estimating the width of a creek to jump over (or not).

So yes, I think we do need estimates. We just have to make sure, that we know where we need them. And why.

till next time
  Michael Mahlberg

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